Friedrich Merz is on the verge of becoming chancellor as Germany elects a new Bundestag.

On Sunday, February 23, early parliamentary elections began in Germany. According to poll data, four of the participating parties are expected to surpass the five percent threshold and enter the new Bundestag. The Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are projected to receive 29-30% of the votes, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is gaining 20-21%, the Social Democrats (SPD) can count on 15-16%, and the Greens are expected to secure 13%. No political force has an absolute majority—typically, in such cases, the chancellor is the leader of the party that received the most votes and heads the governing coalition.

According to surveys, the candidate most likely to become the new chancellor is Friedrich Merz. He is the chairman of the Christian Democratic Union and the chancellor candidate for the conservative CDU/CSU bloc.

The current chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, has slim chances of retaining his position—at best, he may enter a coalition as a junior partner.

Following the Sunday elections, the second party in the country will likely be the AfD (Alternative for Germany). The chancellor candidate from the AfD is 45-year-old Alice Weidel.

A total of 29 political parties are participating in the elections.

The country has about 59.2 million voters. Of these, 24.9 million (42%) are over 60 years old. Approximately 2.3 million voters (3.9%) are young people who have just turned 18 and are voting for the first time in federal elections.

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